Ethiopia, a star African pupil, on the brink

Tensions in Ethiopia have flared again at the end of September 2026. On 20 September, seven rebel movements announced the creation of the "Coalition of Ethiopian Popular Forces for Survival", a political-military alliance that includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano militia.

The seven armed groups, bitter enemies during the 2020-2022 civil war, have joined forces with a single aim: to topple the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Fierce fighting broke out on 22 and 23 September 2026 in Tigray and in the neighbouring regional states of Amhara and Afar. The rapid escalation has raised fears of a new all-out war across the country and has already displaced at least 150,000 people in the Afar region.

Ethiopia's army chief of staff, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea at the end of September 2026 of backing TPLF rebels who are fighting federal forces in northern Ethiopia.

A model of African development faces a political and security test

Ethiopia is regarded as one of Africa's models of economic governance and development. Its tensions with its neighbours, Sudan and Egypt, stem from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built on the Nile.

Beyond his record on economic governance, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, appears to be struggling to contain political and security tensions at home. These now threaten to undermine economic gains and, above all, to tarnish Ethiopia's international image.

Ethiopia is today Africa's leader in civil aviation through Ethiopian Airlines, which has also taken stakes in several other African carriers. It is also a leader in textiles and other industries.

A country's stability and development depend on many factors. All too often, political leaders shut their eyes to domestic realities and settle for a flattering international image. If Ethiopia slides into all-out war, all these efforts will go up in smoke. Once again, it is Africa's image that will be laid bare, to the shame of the "eternally oblivious African".